A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
